As Bengal Heads for Final Phase, High-Pitch Campaigns, Concern Over Violence

West Bengal heads for the last leg of the long-drawn Lok Sabha elections on June 1.

On Tuesday, Kolkata saw high-octane road shows by top leaders, one by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and two by his rival and Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

However, concerns are rife over possible violence and conflict during and after the polling day of the seventh and final phase.

In the seventh phase, nine Lok Sabha constituencies are up for polls – Barasat, Basirhaat, Diamond Harbour, Dum Dum, Jaynagar, Jadavpur, Kolkata South, Kolkata North and Mathurapur.

What to Expect on June 1?

"We apprehend poll violence," said Srijan Bhattacharya, CPI(M)’s Jadavpur candidate, who is pitted against Trinamool Congress (TMC) candidate actor Sayani Ghosh and Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Anirban Ganguly in the final phase of the election.

According to him, the Left may reclaim a large chunk its voters who seemed to have backed BJP earlier in order to resist TMC. However, for the same reason, violence may erupt "wherever CPI(M) and TMC have a strong fight", he told NewsClick, pointing out seats like Jadavpur and Dum Dum, among others.

A Jadavpur University alumnus and one of the prominent youth faces of the Left this election, Bhattacharya, a youth leader, said: "The TMC is getting aggressive as the TMC-BJP binary is breaking and the saffron party does not have a strong ground resistance."

The BJP-RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) have some loyal voter base, he said, but exuded confidence that the Left’s efforts to derail the communal narrative from election issues may yield results. 

The TMC has held the Jadavpur seat since 2009. It bagged the seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with BJP getting 27% and CPI(M) 21% vote share. 

Nonetheless, the TMC's confidence seems to be flailing as Srijan's campaign rally in Panchasayar saw "TMC supporters" protesting, heckling campaigners, and blocking the rally, the CPI(M) candidate said. He alleged that some women campaigners were shoved during the confrontation, but the police did not take any action despite formal complaints. 

"In another instance, during my campaign at Baruipur village, a TMC leader was present and locals were not explicitly able to interact with me. However, I saw them curiously looking through windows and balconies," he added.

Bhattacharya alleged that in many of these places, the Left's flags and banners had been pulled down, wall graffiti vandalised, and false cases were filed against party cadres, implying a "TMC-police" nexus.

Complex Dynamics

The Left sees itself as an important player even though the ruling TMC and the local media show it as a two-corner fight between TMC and BJP. 

TMC campaigns are also pitched against "outsiders" who are trying to "destroy" Bengal, which is a known attack on BJP. 

"BJP is a more comfortable opponent for TMC as they fight on communal planks, trying to divide majority and minority vote banks," said Bhattacharya.

Like other Left candidates, he said he also tried to campaign on livelihood issues which should resonate with voters. He added that youth leaders should be able to pull more votes than before. 

While recognising the Left's strong campaign this time, analyst Udayan Banerjee opined that Prime Minister Modi's roadshow could still affect the Left's votes, but added: "If the Left is able to regain some of its voters who backed BJP in the last elections, it may get quite a few seats this time.”

The Sixth Phase

The fear of violence in the last phase on June 1 stems from the experience on May 25, the sixth phase.

From unruly mobs disrupting electoral campaigns, to polling agents being stopped from carrying out their duties, tension simmered in the state in the sixth phase of the high-pitched election. Sporadic incidents of violence were reported from various parts of Kanthi, Tamluk, and West Midnapore constituencies, among others, on May 25.

The Election Commission had received 954 complaints by 11 a.m on May 25, majorly from political parties alleging malfunctions in Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and obstruction of polling agents' duties at booths.

The crucial seat of Tamluk saw the death of a political cadre's mother right before the sixth phase. The BJP took out a protest march after the incident. Following this, several shops in Nandigram, were torched by an angry mob that called for a 12-hour bandh.

Nandigram, where the anti-land acquisition movement in 2007 against the then Left Front government was instrumental in the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress' rise to power in 2011, is in Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency.

Former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay, who joined BJP immediately after resigning from his post on March 5, and was fielded by the party from the crucial seat, and the selection of young Turks Debangshu Bhattacharya and Sayan Banerjee by TMC and CPI(M), respectively, have intensified political rivalry in the seat.

CPI(M) 's Tamluk candidate, Advocate Sayan Banerjee accused the Election Commission of being in "inactive mode" in many places during the sixth phase. He alleged that the Left's two polling agents in Haldia's Ward no. 19 were kidnapped during the election. 

He pointed out that Haldia was an industrial zone, and political power there was intrinsically linked with monetary interest, giving way to more political violence. 

"Monetary interest is involved here and hence, no one wants to relinquish political power and fight tooth and nail to keep their hold on the seat. This trend has risen since Mamata Banerjee came to power in the state," the CPI(M) candidate alleged. 

Despite these setbacks, he said he was confident about the results. "A part of people in Nandigram are dismayed with the TMC as there has been so much violence since 2008. Although Suvendu Adhikari had influence there as part of TMC, when he switched to the BJP, he won because people wanted to vote TMC out." In the 2021 Assembly elections, CM Mamata Banerjee lost to Adhikari in Nandigram by a margin of 1,957 votes.

Like Sayan, BJP' candidate from Medinipur, Agnimitra Paul, said she faced a similar ordeal with her polling agents. She accused the TMC of kidnapping and taking out BJP's polling agents from the booth on voting day.

In the Ghatal constituency, clashes were reported between supporters of TMC and BJP. BJP candidate and actor Hiran Chatterjee accused the TMC of jeopardising the voting process by blocking the entry of their booth agents. The Ghatal Lok Sabha seat comprises seven Assembly segments, of which six went to TMC in 2021 state elections. The LS seat also went to the TMC in 2019.

Commenting on the sixth-phase violence, Bengal BJP's chief spokesperson Shamik Bhattacharya told NewsClick: "Trinamool is habituated in doing this kind of violence. TMC cadres are frustrated as the Lok Sabha elections are controlled by the ECI and central forces. They wanted to subdue us in Nandigram because there, they are fighting for their reputation."

The TMC, too, has accused BJP of violence. TMC's Tamluk candidate Debangshu Bhattacharya alleged BJP workers beat up a TMC poll agent and captured the booth at Sonachura in Nandigram. 

Despite the incidence of violence, the sixth phase in West Bengal saw over 78% voter turnout, the highest in this phase in the country. However, the voters' mood is difficult to understand due to an eerie silence. While this may imply anti-incumbency, according to Opposition leaders, only the results on June 4 can reveal the reality.

A High-Pitched Campaign Ahead of June 1

These factors have also resulted in a strong three-cornered fight. As TMC and BJP point fingers at each other for the violence, the Left consistently hammers away to regain its voter base by sticking to issues of unemployment and livelihood. 

Meanwhile, the BJP is trying its best to increase its seat share in the state where it has tasted some success in the 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections. It is the first time Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to the streets to campaign instead of just addressing a rally. He also claimed in an interview that the saffron party would see the "most success" in West Bengal.

"There is 8-10% of vote that just PM Modi draws in every constituency. This will be important," claimed BJP spokesperson Bhattacharya. 

The TMC is also not complacent. 

Banerjee on Monday said in a rally that Narendra Modi should be referred to as a BJP leader and not as Prime Minister in the saffron party's campaign as that is a violation of model code of conduct, the PTI reported. She also asserted that the INDIA bloc would defeat the BJP at the Centre with the TMC's help.

Meanwhile, Dumdum TMC candidate and incumbent MP, the septuagenarian Saugata Roy, was spotted on the streets on Monday amid knee-deep water as cyclone Ramel hit Kolkata. He was also seen trying to manoeuvre a JCB machine, a stunt ridiculed by BJP's Sajal Ghosh in the media, who pointed out that driving such a vehicle without a commercial license for this purpose is illegal.

On the other hand, Sujan Chakraborty, Roy’s opponent from the Left in Dum Dum, had a Sunday rally with young faces of the Left, like Dipsita Dhar and Minakshi Mukherjee. 

The Left in Bengal is trying to appeal to the youth, by focusing on issues directly affecting them, such as unemployment, and fielding young faces. In tune with that, Chakraborty's rally raised the slogan "Let the first vote of your youth be for the Leftwing".

The TMC is relying on its welfare schemes like "Lakkhir Bhandar," which are largely directed towards women, and tagging the BJP as "anti-Bengal." 

The BJP campaign has revolved around allegations of corruption and minority appeasement against the Mamata government, while banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image to sail through.

Role of ECI

When asked about the BJP candidates' accusations of inefficiency among central forces in some constituencies, Shamik Bhattacharya pointed out that the Quick Response Teams took as much as 40 minutes to reach many problem areas instead of 15 minutes, as promised by the EC. 

But he added, "The ECI and its forces cannot function properly without the cooperation of the state police. But the police are acting like TMC activists."

West Bengal-based political analyst Udayan Banerjee slammed the ECI for lapses. He said the ECI has full authority during general elections and can order the district magistrate to deploy forces as and when needed; it is not dependent on the state police forces. He also criticised the lack of special vigilance in previously violence-affected areas like Nandigram and Jhargram. 

However, the analyst pointed out that poll-related violence was much less this time compared with the panchayat and Assembly elections, and gave the example of Murshidabad and North Dinajpur where the elections were overall peaceful.