Elections 2019: Is Wayanad a Safe Seat for Rahul Gandhi?

Wayanad in Kerala could soon become a VVIP constituency if Congress President Rahul Gandhi decides to contest the Lok Sabha election from the constituency. Though the Congress president is yet to announce his decision on the Wayanad seat, the main opponent Left Democratic Front has fielded their candidate, PP Suneer from the Communist Party of India (CPI), long back.

On Saturday, top Congress leaders in Kerala, including AICC General Secretary Oommen Chandy and Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala urged Gandhi to contest from the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala.

Speaking to the reporters in Kottayam, Chennithala said that he has already spoken to Gandhi when he had visited Kerala earlier this month. "Today, we have again put forward our request and I have already spoken to the Wayanad district Congress president, who also evinced huge interest," said Chennithala.

Earlier, the Congress had nominated Kozhikode district Congress president T. Siddique to contest from the Wayanad seat. However, Chandy told the media that this is the request from Congress workers and "we wish and want that Gandhi contests from Wayanad".

"Siddique has already been informed about this, and he has welcomed it. If Gandhi decides to accept our request, then it would not only be a massive boost for the party in Kerala, but across South India," Chandy told the media.

"If Gandhi decides to contest from Wayanad, I will be leading his campaign. Gandhi will win with the biggest margin in the country,” Siddique responded.

Reacting to the news about the Kerala Congress's plea to Gandhi, CPI (M) Kerala state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said that they do not fear such things.

"We do not fear if Gandhi contests from Kerala. This move shows a loss of confidence of the Congress party. He should now let all know which constituency he would give up - Amethi or Wayanad," said Balakrishnan.

As the Left is the main opponent in Wayanad, Gandhi’s rival will be the Left, and not the BJP. Though in many seats, there is direct fight between Congress and BJP, interestingly, KPCC wants Rahul to contest from Wayanad.

Questioning Congress’s political agenda, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan asked, “What message will such a contest send out to the nation? Do they want to defeat the Left instead of the BJP?”

In the last two Lok Sabha elections, in 2014 and 2009, M I Shanavas of the Congress had won the seat, defeating the Communist Party of India (CPI) in Kerala's predominantly bipolar electoral politics.

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In that sense, picking Wayanad as Gandhi's constituency is a careful choice as is the calibrated demand to have him contest from a Southern Indian seat apart from Amethi where he faces Union Textile Minister Smriti Irani.

However, the political observers and even a large chunk of voters see it as the outcome of Congress’s groupism. Before the announcement of candidature of Siddique in Wayanad, a conflict was seen within the party. Oommen Chandy, who is known as the leader of ‘A’ group within the party, had proposed the name of Siddique for the seat. But, Ramesh Chennithala, who is one of the strong advocates of ‘I’ group within the party, had put forward Shanimol Usman’s name. Along with this, Congress’s Malappuram district president VV Prakash’s name was also being considered.

Finally, the AICC had approved Siddique as the candidate. It had led to strong internal conflicts within the party, said the sources.

The Congress party spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said, “Southern state PCCs, lakhs of Congress workers and the people of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have urged Rahul Gandhi to contest the Lok Sabha Elections from these states. Their sentiments are deeply valued and respected.”

The Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency has been newly formed, and was created following fresh delimitation of seats in 2008. It comprises seven assembly segments: three of these are from Wayanad district – Mananthavady, Sulthanbathery and Kalpetta. One is from Kozikode district (Thiruvambadi) and three are from Malappuram district – Ernad, Nilambur and Wandoor.

The seat has been vacant since last year following the MP's death.

For the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the total number of electors in Wayanad was 11,02,097. Shanavas got 410,703 votes, which was 49.86 per cent of votes polled. He defeated Advocate M. Rahmatullam of the CPI, who got 257,264 (31.23 per cent).

In that election, the Bharatiya Janata Party's C. Vasudevan Master got 31,687 votes which was a mere 3.85 per cent of the votes polled. He came a distant fourth in the contest.

K. Muraleedharan of the Nationalist Congress Party did better than the BJP candidate, coming third with 99,663 votes (12.10 per cent).

Compared to 2009, Shanavas had a tough time winning the seat in 2014, scraping through with a little more than 20,000 votes over the second placed CPI candidate to become one of the 44 Congress MPs in the last Lok Sabha.

In 2014, Shanavas got 377,035 votes or 30.18 per cent of the votes polled compared to CPI's Sathyan Mokeri who got 356,165 votes or 28.51 per cent. However, that election saw the BJP placed third with its candidate P R Rasmilnath bagging 80,752 votes (6.46 per cent).

The others in the race, all bit players, fared as follows. Independent candidate P.V. Anvar got 37,123 votes (2.97 per cent), SDPI's Jaleel Neelambra got 14,327 votes (1.146 per cent) and WPOI's Ramla Mampad got 12,645 votes (1.01 per cent).

(With inputs from IANS)

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