Elections 2019: Left to Reclaim Thiruvananthapuram Seat

Out of 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram with three high profile candidates is all set to go for the Lok Sabha elections 2019. Communist Party of India legislator and former state minister C Divakaran, representing the Left Democratic Front (LDF), will be facing Congress’ Shashi Tharoor who is expecting a hat-trick victory from the constituency. Former Mizoram Governor and former BJP state president Kummanam Rajasekharan will also be in the picture in the constituency which expects a triangular fight.

Though Tharoor had bagged victory in 2009 and 2014, Divakaran’s candidature gives hopes to the LDF camp. Divakaran, with his vast experience in the trade union movement and commendable performance as legislative member, is a well known face in the constituency.

Thiruvananthapuram does not owe traditional support to any particular front. In 2004, PK Vasudevan Nair of CPI paved his way to the Parliament with a majority of 54,603 votes over the Congress’ VS Shivakumar. In that election, LDF bagged 37.45% of the total votes polled. UDF secured 30.30% votes and BJP-led NDA secured 29.86% votes. However, the constituency had witnessed a by-election after the demise of PK Vasudevan Nair.

In the by-election in 2005, LDF had fielded Pannyan Raveendran of CPI and, this time too, marked a massive victory with a majority of 74,200 over the Congress’ VS Sivakumar. The BJP who fielded CK Padmanabhan could only bag 4.83% votes. Clearly, a massive vote swing could be seen in that election. The percentage of votes of LDF and UDF were 51.41 and 41.64, respectively.

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In the 2009 Parliament elections, Tharoor captured the sitting seat of CPI and his margin of victory was 99,998 votes. While UDF secured 44.29% votes, LDF got 30.74% votes. BJP could finish only at the fourth position after BSP. Again in 2014, Tharoor succeeded to hold the seat with a margin of 15,470 votes. But it is important to note that the vote share of UDF had come down to 34.09%, more than 10% lower than the 2009 elections. BJP’s O Rajagopal with 32.32% came in the second place. CPI’s Bennet Abraham could mobilise only 28.50% of the total votes polled which is 2.24% lesser than 2009.

Whenever, O Rajagopal represented the BJP alliance, they had secured a decent share of vote and the Congress’ vote share had come down too. So, more than political votes, Rajagopal’s vote share owes more to his personal connects. UDF’s vote share had eroded drastically over the years, while LDF’s vote share was some what consistent though there were fluctuations. This is what gives hope to the BJP and Kummanam.

Indeed, Kummanam will not be able to secure the sympathy votes that had been secured by the veteran Rajagopal in the 2014 elections. Also, as per the political observers, Rajagopal represented a more sober face though he has been associated with the Sangh. As opposed to that, Kummanam has been associated with various communal clashes in the state, including the Marad riot.

The RSS patron Kummanam who resigned from the governor post of Mizoram to be the NDA candidate in the constituency aims to consolidate the Hindu votes. Since NDA’s one and only one MLA O Rajagopal is from the Nemam Assembly seat which falls within this constituency, the fight would be a prestigious one for the BJP. In another Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyurkavu, BJP had finished second in the Assembly polls of 2016. The constituency consists of seven assembly segments including Kazhakuttam, Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyurkavu, Nemam, Kovalam, Neyyatinkara and Parassala.

When Divakaran had become the Food and Civil Supplies minister in the VS Achuthanandan-led government during 2006-2011, he introduced a number of schemes. One of his first decisions after becoming a minister was to replace the existing mid-day meal scheme with the detailed diet plan. Divakaran, who fought with poverty in his childhood, introduced proper lunch to school kids along with banana, eggs and milk, thus ensuring a balanced diet for school children. Now, more than 25 lakh students across the state enjoy the scheme. He is currently representing the Nedumangad Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram district which falls under Attingal Parliamentary constituency.

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The LDF camp expects to make further inroads in the coastal belts, which have been the strong hold of Congress. During the aftermath of the Ockhi cyclone, the state government had initiated various projects to rehabilitate the fisher folk. The government had even initiated housing projects for the people who are at the coastal belts. In October last year, one such project in Muttathara had been completed and fishing families from Valiyathura, Cheriyathura, Valiyathope and Kochuthope were benefited under this projects. Several such projects are under process for the fishing communities whose homes are in proximity to the sea, exposing them to the dangerous waves and floods.

On the other hand, Thiruvananthapuram DCC general secretary Thampanoor Satheesh has stepped in to the scene saying that the Congress leadership and workers are not cooperating with the campaign of UDF candidate Shashi Tharoor. Since the commencement of the election campaign, it has been said that the Congress machinery is not working properly in the constituency.

Tharoor, who enjoys the support of anti-left and liberal elites with his charm and style of argument, had recently come under severe criticism over his tweet after visiting a fish market. “Found a lot of enthusiasm at the fish market even for a squeamishly vegetarian MP,” he had tweeted along with few photos, with one among them showing the MP holding a fish covered with a paper to avoid direct contact with the fish. The LDF’s election committee chairman, M Vijayakumar, pointing out Tharoor’s attitude over the fisher folk community, had said that his comments “expose his approach towards the working class.” When Tharoor sensed a backlash over the comment, he said that it was a sarcastic comment on himself.

Divakaran sees the fight would be different this time. “The BJP is nowhere in the picture since the candidate is an RSS man. Similarly, the Congress rank and file are not with Tharoor since the party itself is not happy with him,” he said.