Bihar: BJP Struggling to Finalise Seat-sharing With Allies

Patna: Though Bihar's ruling BJP-led NDA is claiming that the seat-sharing formula has almost been finalised for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the fact is that differences remain among its allies. 

What raised eyebrows was that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is president of JD-U, a major ally of NDA, did not share dias with PM Narendra Modi in Bettiah (district headquarters of West Champaran) on Wednesday because he is in Delhi on his way to his visit to England and will be out of the country for more than a week. 

Kumar used to demand the earliest finalisation of seat sharing last year when he was part of the opposition alliance INDIA, but now he is not saying anything about the delay in NDA.

Reports in local Hindi dailies in the last few days suggest that BJP is in trouble as its small allies, including Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) of Chirag Paswan, Lok Jan Shakti Party of Union Minister Pasupati Kumar Paras, Rashtriya Lok Morcha of former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha and Hindustani Awam Morcha of former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, are not ready to follow its diktat and bargaining hard for seat sharing. This has become clear after the re-entry of Nitish Kumar's JD-U in NDA on January 28. 

Besides, JD-U is adamant about not compromising on contesting less than 16 seats, the number it won in the previous elections. In the last Lok Sabha elections, JD-U contested in alliance with BJP and won 16 out of 17 contested seats.

A senior BJP leader told NewsClick that the party would contest 17 seats like last time, finalise names, and send them to top leadership for approval. 

"Party top leaders will hold a meeting on March 8 in Delhi and are likely to finalise it and discuss seat sharing with allies".

Over 40 days after the new NDA government led by Kumar was formed, cabinet expansion is yet to occur, and uncertainty deepens over seat sharing.

Political watchers here said the NDA's seat-sharing delay has delayed cabinet expansion by Nitish Kumar. As Nitish Kumar is going to England on March 7, there is no possibility of cabinet expansion in his absence. It seems he is waiting for the BJP to finalise seat sharing.

"Nitish Kumar is known for successfully pushing his bargain with BJP in the past. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar got 17 seats to contest despite his party, JD-U, winning only two seats in the 2014 polls when it contested alone. He will bargain hard."

However, after Nitish Kumar's re-entry into the NDA, other allies are uncomfortable, particularly Chirag Paswan and Kushwaha.

According to sources close to Chirag Paswan and Kushwaha, the BJP has ignored them since Nitish Kumar joined hands. Sensing the change in the political tone of BJP, Paswan and Kushwaha have made it clear to the top leadership of the saffron party to give them a decent share in seat sharing.

Paswan has been demanding six seats that his party contested in previous polls, and Kushwaha is demanding at least three seats to contest. But BJP reportedly offers four seats to Paswan's party and one seat to Kushwaha party. But the main bone of contention is the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat that Chirag Paswan's younger uncle, Pasupati Kumar Paras, won. This time, Chirag Paswan want to contest from Hajipur, widely seen as the traditional seat of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan.

But Paras is not ready to compromise on Hajipur and repeatedly asserted to contest Hajipur again.

Similarly, Kushwaha aims to contest the Karakat seat, which he won in 2014. JD-U won the seat last time (2019), and the party is unlikely to leave it for him to contest this time.

There are nearly half a dozen such seats, which JD-U and BJP currently represent, but other allies want to contest.

Unhappy over the change of the sharing formula in NDA after the entry of Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan, and Kushwaha, they have not shared dais with PM Modi in Aurangabad and Begusarai during his official visit on March 2 that was turned into a political programme. The absence of Chirag Paswan and Kushwaha indicates that everything is not well in the NDA over seat sharing.

Yet again, on March 6, Chirag Paswan and Kushwaha did not share the dais with Modi in Bettiah, the second time in five days.

Before Nitish Kumar's re-entry into the NDA, sources in the BJP said the party was sure to contest at least 30 to 32 seats, and the remaining would be given to allies.

Till recently, Chirag Paswan used to claim himself as Hanuman of Modi, but now he has not yet joined BJP's campaign of Parivar of Modi in response to RJD chief Lalu Prasad, who questioned Modi's family recently.

On the other hand, opposition Mahagathbandhan has finalised its seat-sharing formula. As per this formula, the main focus is winning the elections seat by seat to prevent the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) from replicating its 2019 success in Bihar.

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA secured 39 out of 40 parliamentary seats, with the Congress winning only one seat and the RJD failing to secure any seats, marking a significant setback for the party.

However, speculation is rife here that Paswan may dump BJP if his party will not be given a respectful share in seat sharing in NDA and will join hands with RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.