Demonetisation and the UP Elections

Post the demonetisation fiasco, the confident Modi and his party are suddenly unsure of their election prospects in the upcoming UP elections. 

Modi’s abrupt decision seems to have put a stopper to the BJP bulldozer. Demonetisation, which has caused havoc in the whole country, has certainly not spared UP. Loss of jobs, long queues outside the banks and ATMs, shrinking of demands and jobs, migratory workers returning back to their home-towns—the picture is same everywhere.

Social media, which played a very important role in building up Modi’s image, is now equally active in creating mocking memes and trolling Modi. International media is not far behind, and is calling demonetisation as a terrible mistake. People within the BJP seem to still be in a denial!

Amit Shah, the frightening party president of BJP, reportedly had to bear the brunt of anger in an internal meeting in Delhi recently. BJP representatives from Delhi and UP criticized the move to suddenly demonetize 500 & 1000 currency notes. In spite the attempts of BJP to save their face, there is a clear fear within the party that this might cause them their vote base in the upcoming UP elections. 

It is yet to be seen if the demonetisation disaster  will have a role to play in the upcoming UP assembly elections. Whether the voters who have no access to cash would vote to show their dissent. Though the change in the objective of demonetisation – from curbing of black-money, to making India a cashless economy – has not gone unnoticed.

The whole state has, like everywhere else, seen an utmost crisis! UP has been a sight of various small and marginal industrial shutdowns.

Leather industry has been hit hard. Sinkers from Malihabad, Tanners from Kanpur and Unnao, they all had to shut down! Everyone has been affected due to demonetisation.  On 14th December, Labourers closed down the Delhi-Agra highway to protest against demonetisation.

90 out of 100 bangle factories have been shut down in Firozabad due to cash crunch caused by demonetisation. Hundreds have been rendered jobless!

Over 90% of the lock factories have been shut down in Aligarh, causing a lot of crisis and joblessness.

Textile industries have been shut down all over the state. Places like Mathura, have been hit bad. Factory owners had to close them down due to lack of cash to give to the workers.

The story is the same all over the state. Demonetisation has caused shut downs and joblessness everywhere. Traders are unhappy, business has shrunk, and the business lobby, which might have traditionally voted for BJP, could shift their votes.

The elections are anyone’s game. Predictions have gone wrong, miracles have happened. No one really knows how the voting pattern will be, till the final results actually come out. The current crisis within the Samajwadi party, and the apparent less-visibility of BSP, could actually trigger the votes in favor of BJP despite demonetisation. Performing well in UP is extremely important for BJP. They would want to prove that Modi’s blunder of a decision, was actually a good move. One needs to wait and watch. Only time will tell whether or not demonetisation, which has adversely affected the whole state, would actually affect UP elections or not.