One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: The US and Iran Sanctions

Most of the world had welcomed the resumption of talks between the US and Iran, though nominally the talks are between P5+1 (5 Permanent Security Council members and Germany) and Iran.

A scant three-weeks after the interim agreement and starting of talks, the US has thrown a monkey wrench in the works; it has announced what amounts to new sanctions against 4 persons, 12 companies and 36 reflagged ships linked to Iran's oil sales and associated services. None of this is a part of the UN sanctions but are unilateral US ones and illegal under WTO rules. Predictably, Iran has denounced this as a breach of faith and walked out of the talks.

Both Kerry, the US Foreign Secretary and Catherine Ashton, the EU representative refused to recognise the Iranian move, and said that the talks had been “suspended” as both sides needed to consult their home governments. But the Iranian statements are clear – talks have been suspended as the new sanctions amount to breaching the spirit of the agreement reached only last month.

Image Courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

Russia has already warned of a threat to the Iran and P5+1 talks and the interim agreement as a consequence of the new sanctions, "The U.S. administration's decision goes against the spirit of this document," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, echoing what Iran has said.

The US seems to be caught in trying to reach an agreement with Iran it sorely needs to pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and also appease the rabid Israeli-Zionist lobby that wants the US to “take out” Iran. Just two days back, the White House managed to shelve new sanctions that the US Congress was contemplating. Soon after, it has itself expanded the sanctioned entities list. While the US can claim that these are not new sanctions but only “implementation” of old sanctions, which the US has not lifted, the fact remains that this is a step that shows the possibility that the US is negotiating in bad faith. It's end game could be to force Iran to break the negotiations and then claim the high ground and resume the war hysteria on Iran.

After the accord, the US rhetoric including that of President Obama has been a triumphalist one. Iran has finally been forced to halt their nuclear weapons program and “we” can now squeeze them even more – this was the rhetoric emerging from the US administration. Does the US really believe that more sanctions will get more “concessions” out of Iran? While the US administration ass clear that additional sanctions will kill the interim agreement, and said so to the Congress, why does it think that expanding the entities list will have no repercussions? Either the US administration has started believing its own propaganda, or the US is conducting a charade and has no intention of reaching an agreement with Iran.

For Iran, the end game has always been clear – any agreement must accept Iran's right to the full fuel cycle and lifting all sanctions. In return, Iran is willing to limit its fuel enrichment program and give IAEA reasonable access. Since Iran had no intention of embarking on a nuclear weapons program (at least after 2003), the concessions that the US administration talks about is all hog-wash. But there is no doubt that Iran will not accept any agreement that does not lift sanctions completely.

We will have to watch whether the interim agreement can be salvaged or do we go back to status quo ante. A lot will depend on how the US now behaves. While a temporary freeze in the talks is certain, how the US conducts itself in the larger West Asian arena would be also a pointer to its intentions.

That is why the US trajectory in Syria will be watched with interest. Here again, it has blown hot and cold. It has talked about starting discussions with the Islamic Front in Syria – the good Salafists -- while deciding to suspend all non-lethal aid to organisations affiliated to the Front. The distinction between bad Salafists (al Qaeda) and good Salafists (Islamic Front) is a stupid one, given the kind of atrocities constituents of the Front have carried out against minorities and secular Syrians.

That a three-week old agreement should unravel so quickly does not speak well of the US administration. For countries such as India, the continuing of sanctions on Iran and any danger of war is dangerous for its economy. It is time that countries other than the US and its NATO allies get together and oppose the illegal US sanctions regime on Iran. Iran is not just an issue between the US and Iran but concerns all the countries and their people.

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