Ukraine Ceasefire: The Collapse of the NATO Strategy

The Ukraine ceasefire, worked out in Minsk, Belarus between the Kiev regime officials and the representatives of the two regions Lugansk and Donetsk, has been put into effect by both sides. The guns have indeed fallen silent for now in Eastern Ukraine. The five month long war, in which the Kiev regime has used air power, artillery and inducted fascist forces in its ranks, saw a sharp reversal of fortunes in the last two weeks. The sudden attack in the south which opened the way to Mariupol and beyond, saw large sections of the Kiev forces encircled and caught in “meat grinders”. Suddenly, it was not the forces of the Donetsk-Lugansk region that were on the defensive but the Kiev forces. Clearly, the Kiev forces were over extended and the collapse of its southern front had a cascading effect on the rest.

It was this reversal of military fortunes that forced Poroshenko to sue for peace, first with President Putin and then with the two “peoples” republics.

The western media, following the lead of its leaders, have been claiming that this collapse happened only because well-equipped and well-armed Russian troops crossed the border in large numbers and routed the Kiev forces. The “proof” was that if the Kiev regime was winning earlier and losing now, it must be because of the Russians. The only other proof was some low resolution pictures of Russian armour near the border. As against this, is the report of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). In a report on 3rd September, observers from the OSCE stated that they had not observed any troops, ammunition or weapons crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border over the past two weeks.

So this was one more of those manufactured lies that now the US and its NATO allies routinely trot out to convince the world, particularly their own citizens; that the west is always right and its opponents always wrong, never mind the facts. Remember WMD's in Iraq, the chemical attacks by Assad forces in Syria, and massacres in Libya, all of which were later proven wrong?

Image Courtesy: wikipedia.org

So what happens now? We now have the details of the 12 point agreement that has been reached in Minsk. Many commentators have stated that this is worder quite vaguely and will not hold for long. The key question is can the Humpty Dumpty of the Ukrainian nation be put together again? The Donetsk-Lugansk region leadership have rejected such a scenario, saying too much blood has already been spilt for this. Now that the Ukraine forces are on the retreat, it is difficult to see the military status quo being reversed on the negotiating table. It is also important to register that unlike the earlier Yanukovich agreement with the Maidan, which were “guaranteed” by the western powers, and promptly reneged by the Maidan forces, this has OSCE and Russia as only other parties to the negotiations. So Russia is very much a central player in the ceasefire, with the west temporarily sidelined.

Russia would like an arrangement that gives de facto separation of Donetsk-Lugansk region from Kiev provided the Kiev forces leave the entire region. Kiev is playing with a weak hand as its ability to hold on to the region is seriously weakened, having suffered major reverses. A formal recognition of independence of the region may cause more diplomatic problems for Russia. But there is little doubt that henceforth Donbas-Lugansk would act independently and forge much closer ties with Russia, not withstanding the final legal status.

Is it true that Russia has been involved in the rebellion in the eastern Ukraine? I would be surprised if it is not true. Yes, Russia probably did help the two regions – Donetsk and Lugansk – in various ways. This can hardly be faulted by the US and its EU allies, when they themselves are on record for having funded the Maidan protests and the organisations behind it. The US had spent $ 5 billion in promoting “democracy” in the last decade, and the EU about half a billion euros over a shorter period in the run up to the Maidan revolt against Yanukovich. We will not go into the double standards of the US openly supplying arms to the Syrian rebels and its charges of Russia violating international law on the same count by supplying arms – as claimed by Kiev and NATO -- to the Donetsk-Lugansk forces. According to the version of international law that US and its allies uphold, that law applies only to others; they, as higher beings, are exempt from such laws. The sauce for the NATO gander is manifestly not sauce for the Russian goose.

The key issue is whether the Russian forces entered Ukraine as claimed? And on that, the evidence – not withstanding the shrill propaganda emanating from western sources – is pretty much zilch.

Russia had always warned that Ukraine joining NATO would be considered a threat to Russia. It has also said that it would not allow Svastopol, its only warm water naval base in the Black Sea, to be taken over by NATO. The belief that all this could be achieved through an EU pact with Kiev, (one of the conditions was military integration of Ukraine with EUmilitary structures) was the start of the unravelling of Ukraine. Yes, the west won the first round when they forced Yanukovich out and installed their favourites in Kiev. Having installed Ukrainian “nationalists” in the Ukraine leadership, it is not surprising that eastern Ukraine with its much closer ties to Russia and a large ethnic Russian population, would feel uneasy with a regime that was openly anti-Russian. An aggressive Ukrainian nationalism, followed by its attacks on the Donetsk-Lugansk regions including on civilians, was a sure recipe for unravelling a multi-lingual and multi-ethnic Ukraine.

What has come to pass in Ukraine is a set of events foretold. The counter narrative of an aggressive Russia seeking to recreate the Soviet Empire is hog wash, not withstanding its hold on the western media.

(updated on 8th September re the12 point ceasefire agreement)

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