Elections 2019: BJP May Lose 11 Seats in Madhya Pradesh, Suggests Assembly Election Results Data

Bhopal: Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released their first list of candidates in Madhya Pradesh for the Lok Sabha Elections on Saturday, March 23.

The state has 29 parliamentary seats including 10 reserved for SC/ST candidates. Congress’s first list has the names of nine candidates including former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh from Bhopal seat, while BJP has announced 15 candidates including Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar from Morena.

Both the parties are aiming to contest from all the seats. At present, out of 29 seats, BJP has 26 and Congress has 3 seats.

In a recently held rally in Sagar on March 10, BJP chief Amit Shah vowed to win all 29 seats and urged party workers to help realise this goal. Earlier, Congress General Secretary Jyotiraditya Scindia and MP from Guna constituency had vowed for the same during the Abhar Rally in Bhopal.

Also Read: Madhya Pradesh Polls: Three-Figure Margin Losses That Cost BJP a Win

However, the recently held assembly elections data reveals that neither party can sweep all seats in the state, if voters follow the same voting pattern that they did in the Assembly election. The BJP may, however, lose 11 seats from its current 26 seats.

According to the assembly election data, analysed by the NewsClick, BJP could lose Morena, Bhind, Gwalior (Chambal region), Tikamgarh, Shahdol, Mandla, Dewas, Ratlam, Dhar, Betul and Rajgarh. Of these 11 seats, eight are reserved.

The data suggested that Congress is leading in all 11 constituencies if the votes polled in the Assembly constituencies that constitute a parliamentary constituency are added. While BJP seems to have an edge in 18 seats and could repeat the results of 2014 in these seats if voters stick to the party which they had voted for in the Assembly elections.

Let us take the example of Gwalior and Morena parliamentary seats.

Gwalior parliamentary constituency is constituted of eight assembly seats – Gwalior, Gwalior East, Gwalior South, Gwalior Rural, Dabra, Bhitarwar, Karera and Pohari. In the 2014 General Elections, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar won with a margin of 2.96 lakh votes and the BJP had already won five Assembly seats out of eight in the 2013 Assembly elections. But in 2018, the BJP could manage to win only one – Gwalior Rural – and Congress won rest of the seats.

If the votes received by both BJP and Congress candidates cumulatively in these constituencies which constitute the parliamentary seat are taken into account, then Congress polled 1.33 lakh votes more than the BJP during the 2018 Assembly elections.

In Morena parliamentary constituency, there are eight legislative assemblies — Sheopur, Vijaypur, Sabalgarh, Jaura, Sumaoli, Morena, Dimini and Ambah. BJP’s Anoop Mishra had won this seat in the 2014 General Elections with a margin of 1.32 lakh votes. And in the 2013 Assembly elections, BJP had won five out of eight seats while Congress managed to win one and BSP two Assembly seats. But in 2018, the BJP received a massive blow from this region and only managed to win two seats, while the Congress won rest of the six seats.

On adding the votes received by both BJP and Congress candidates in these constituencies which constitute the parliamentary seat, it is clear that Congress polled 1.26 lakh votes more than the BJP during the recently held 2018 Assembly elections.

Also Read: MP Polls: BJP Lost Half the Seats where PM Modi and CM Yogi Campaigned

Congress already has three parliamentary seats in the state, Chhindwara, Guna and Ratlam.

So far, things seem to be favouring Congress, but if the voters chose the same party which they had voted for in the Assembly elections then things would be different for Congress General Secretary Jyotiraditya Scindia.

The Guna parliamentary constituency comprises of Shivpur, Pichhore, Kolaras, Bamori, Guna, Ashok Nagar, Chanderi and Mungaoli assembly constituencies and Scindia is the MP from the seat. If the cumulative votes secured by both BJP and Congress during 2018 Assembly elections are taken into account, then it becomes clear that the BJP had polled 16,499 more votes than Congress.

In two constituencies where Congress had won in the 2014 general elections, it continues to lead in Chhindwara, but BJP is leading in Guna as per the Assembly election voting trends. The Ratlam constituency seat was won by Congress' Kantilal Bhuria in by polls held in 2015. 

Besides, in Damoh, Balaghat and Khargone parliamentary constituencies, the BJP is leading with a very thin margin.

Seats where Congress has an edge according to the Assembly Election results data

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