Kerala’s Covid-19 Cases Likely to Drop Significantly in a Month, Say Experts

The Covid-19 cases in Kerala, after reaching a peak in October, have now been showing a downward trend for past few weeks. The southern state on Wednesday reported 7,007 new COVID-19 cases, taking its total number of cases to 5,02,719.

Further, with 29 more deaths on Wednesday, the total death toll in the state touched 1,771. As of Wednesday, as many as 78,420 persons were under treatment in Kerala with 7,252 people recovering on the same day. The total recoveries have risen to 4,22,410 as well. According to state health minister K K Shailaja, in the last 24 hours, 64,192 samples were tested, taking the aggregate to 52,49,865. The test positivity rate in the state is 10. 91%.

"Out of those infected today, 86 came from outside the state, while 6,152 contracted the disease through their contacts. The sources of infection of 717 people was not yet either known or traced. Among those infected were 52 health workers," the health minister said.

Of the positive cases, Ernakulam district reported the highest (977) followed by Thrissur (966), Kozhikode (830), Kollam (679) and Kottayam (580). As many as 3,15,246 persons are currently under observation, out of which 19,034 are in isolation wards of various hospitals.

The growth rate of active cases in 12 out of 14 districts has dropped in the past week. The mortality rate has also significantly decreased compared to the previous week, according to the state health department. The seven-day active moving growth rate (MGR) has dipped to 9% as of November 7. Meanwhile, Wayanad and Alappuzha have witnessed an increase in active cases- 10% and 4% respectively.

Kerala’s seven-day MGR from November 1 to 7 was at 12%. During the same period, Idukki did not report any single death. The mortality MGR in Kottayam, which once had the highest mortality MGR, has become 8%. As of now, Pathanamthitta has the highest mortality MGR of 25% followed by Wayanad with 21%.

Meanwhile, the health experts say that the Covid-19 cases in the state would decline significantly within a month.

“In Kerala, Covid cases peaked late and now we are seeing a decreasing trend. Probably in another one month, the case count may significantly reduce,” said Dr Jayakrishnan AV, chairman of Hospital Board of India under the Indian Medical Association (IMA).

“With most of the lockdown restrictions lifted and people getting back to normal routine, a second wave can prove detrimental if necessary precautions are not taken. We would be able to bring in a vaccine before the second wave,” Dr Jayakrishnan added.

Source: https://dashboard.kerala.gov.in/

“The pandemic curve is plateauing now. The state has witnessed a natural surge in number of cases, as anticipated by the health system. But we have succeeded in delaying that surge and the health system in the state has gotten enough time to prepare while well anticipating the spike,” said an epidemiologist who works with the Covid cell of the state.

“Unlike other states, the health system in Kerala could accommodate everyone although the number had surged. We have been managing the pandemic pretty well and now the pandemic curve is plateauing,” the epidemiologist added.