UP Bypolls: Hathras, Migrant Crisis, Law and Order Key Issues in all 7 Seats

Lucknow: With the declaration of candidates by every political party in Uttar Pradesh, battlelines have been drawn in seven Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) constituencies which will go to poll on November 3. The counting of votes will be held on November 10.

Among the seven seats going to bypolls, six seats -- Naugawan Sadat, Bulandshahr, Tundla, Bangarmau, Ghatampur and Deoria – are held by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while the Samajwadi Party (SP) holds the Malhani seat that it won in the 2017 Assembly elections.

The five seats held by the BJP fell vacant after the death of sitting MLAs Chetan Chauhan, Kamal Rani Varun, Virendra Singh Sirohi, Janmejai Singh and Prasanath Yadav.

The Bangarmau assembly seat in Unnao district fell vacant after the disqualification of sitting MLA Kuldeep Singh Sengar following his conviction in a rape case on December 20 last year.

CANDIDATES AND CONSTITUENCIES

The Malhani Assembly seat in Jaunpur district fell vacant due to the sudden demise of SP leader Paras Nath Yadav.

This time round, the BJP has fielded Manoj Singh from Malhani. While SP, the largest Opposition party in the state, has fielded Lucky Yadav, son of late Paras Nath Yadav. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has given a ticket to Jai Prakash, while Congress has Rakesh Mishra as its candidate for the seat.

However, with the presence of two-time MLA and don Dhananjay Singh as an Independent candidate in the fray has queered the pitch for all parties in Malhani.

The Bangarmau seat in Unnao district fell vacant after disqualification of sitting BJP MLA Sengar following his conviction and life imprisonment in the Unnao rape case.

BJP faces a major challenge in retaining the Bangamaru seat. The party has fielded former district president Srikant Katiyar. Others in the fray are SP's Suresh Kumar Pal, BSP's Mahesh Prasad and Congress candidate Aarti Bajpai.

The Tundla seat in Firozabad district fell vacant after SP Singh Baghel was elected as a BJP Member of Parliament from Agra following which the incumbent party has fielded Prempal Dhangar as their candidate. The SP has fielded Maharaj Singh Dhangar, while Sanjeev Kumar Chak has been fielded from BSP and Sneha Lata from Congress.

Kanpur's Ghatampur (Reserve) seat fell vacant after the death of Kamal Rani Varun due to COVID-19, a cabinet minister in the Adityanath government. The BJP has fielded Upendra Paswan, president of its Scheduled Caste (SC) front in the Kanpur-Bundelkhand region, against SP's Indrajit Corey, BSP has fielded Kuldeep Kumar Sankhwar while Congress has selected Kripa Shankar.

The Naugawn Sadat Assembly seat in Amroha district fell vacant after the demise of UP Minister Chetan Chauhan due to coronavirus. The BJP has pitted his wife Sangeeta Chauhan from this seat against SP’s Syed Jawed Abbas and BSP’s Furqan Ahmad. The Congress has fielded Kamlesh Singh.

The bye-election is being held on the Bulandshahr seat due to the death of BJP's Virendra Singh Sirohi. The party has nominated his wife, Usha Sirohi, from this seat. The SP has not fielded any candidate but has left the seat for its ally, Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has fielded Praveen Singh. The BSP has given the ticket to Mohammad Yunus and Congress to Sushil Chaudhary.

In Deoria Assembly constituency, all major parties for the first time in over four decades have fielded brahmin candidates and each of them has the same last name — Tripathi. Here the bye-election is being held due to the demise of BJP MLA Janmejaya Singh. The party has now given the ticket to Satya Prakash Mani, SP has declared Brahmashankar Tripathi, BSP has fielded Abhayanath Tripathi while the Congress has given the ticket to Mukund Bhaskar Mani Tripathi.

The son of late Janmejay Singh is also contesting as a BJP rebel and could swing the votes against BJP, say political observers.

EXPERTS SAY BJP HAS LOST GROUND

While Chief Minister Adityanath has already kicked off campaign and also started virtual rallies in these constituencies, seeking votes on the basis of work done by the both Central and state government, the Opposition parties are challenging BJP on the issues of unemployment, COVID-19 handling, migrants crisis, farmers, and deteriorating law and order situation in the state.

The deaths of two dalit women after they were allegedly gang-raped in Hathras and Balrampur are likely to figure during the campaign for the seven Assembly seats. The construction of Ram temple at Ayodhya will also figure in the campaign.

Speaking to NewsClick, senior political analyst PN Dwivedi said the bye-elections will reveal the political trend for the 2022 Assembly elections. It is a challenge for the BJP to retain its Assembly seats. "These bye-elections, are being considered as semi-finals and would also work as a litmus test for many parties ahead of the 2022 Assembly polls."

Dalit activist Kanwal Bharti said: "Those in power should act and those in opposition should raise their voice. Those who were seen on the ground will get the benefit. The Yogi government has failed in controlling law and order, especially atrocities against dalits."

Echoing similar sentiments, S.R. Darapuri, former Inspector General of UP police, said: "BJP will be the loser as the common people are angry with the current government in terms of how they were treated by the government and administration during the pandemic. The SP has an edge and will retain most seats as there is anti-incumbency. BSP is nowhere, as its supremo is not interesting in contesting elections on real issues."

According to estimates, the UP’s population comprises around 205% dalits. With their support, the BSP had formed the government in the state in 2007. In 2017, BJP formed a majority government and in 2012 the SP had formed the government by denting the BSP's dalit vote bank, post-election analysis had revealed.

Of the 84 seats reserved in UP for SC and ST candidates, the BJP won 69 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections, in the 2012 polls the SP had got 58 of these seats and in 2007 the BSP had secured 62 reserved seats.