UP Assembly Polls: BJP at Crossroads Over Fallout of Lakhimpur Killings

Lucknow: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is at the political crossroads in Uttar Pradesh after the Lakhimpur Kheri incident. For the saffron camp, the choice is between enraged farmers and the state's 11% brahmins (upper castes).

Farmers and the Opposition parties have been mounting pressure on Narendra Modi's government for the resignation of Union minister Ajay Mishra, whose son is the prime accused in the incident. Farmers alleged that the junior minister for home, Ajay Mishra, and his son, Ashish, orchestrated the conspiracy against the farmers that claimed the lives of four farmers, a journalist, and three others.  

Read Also: Lakhimpur Kheri Violence: Drowned in Grief, Families of 4 Killed Farmers Blame Minister’s Son for Mayhem

Earlier, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had announced that no action would be taken against anyone without concrete evidence. But under the pressure from the Supreme Court, the minister's son, who allegedly rammed farmers under his car, was arrested after five days of the incident. 

But, the farmers are not satisfied with the arrest of Ashish or Monu Mishra. They have been demanding the resignation of his father Ajay Mishra from the council of Union ministers. Farmers believe that a free and fair investigation is not possible until Ajay Mishra resigns from ministership.

The All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) says that the minister intimidated the farmers in one of his speeches in September in Lakhimpur (videos are doing the rounds of his speech). Mukut Singh, state secretary of AIKS, alleged the minister was himself a kingpin of the incident. "How is a free and fearless probe possible when the father of the accused is the boss of the investigating department?” he said.

Despite heavy pressure from farmer's unions and the Opposition, Ajay Mishra has not resigned as yet. Many believe that PM Modi does not want to upset brahmins by removing Mishra, ahead of the crucial Assembly polls due early next year. Too woo the upper caste Brahmins, the BJP recently inducted Mishra in the Union government and Congress turncoat Jitin Prasada in the state government.

The brahmin community, which is 11% of UP’s population, has been expressing its disillusionment with BJP ever since the Sangh Parivar handed over the reins of power in UP to a thakur (another upper caste) leaderYogi Adityanath. 

Brahmins had been traditional voters of the Congress since the country’s Independence in 1947. Later, in the late 1980s, during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, they shifted loyalty to the saffron camp. In 2007 and 2012, they extended support to Bhaujan Samaj party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP). But the brahmins returned to their old shelter in 2017 and massively voted for BJP in the Assembly elections. 

On the other side, the resentment of farmers has been brewing since the contagious three Central farm laws were passed by Parliament. The movement against these laws has intensified after the Lakhimpur incident. 

Read Also: One Year of Farm Laws; Here’s how Protests Unfolded

To build pressure on BJP for Ajay Mishra’s resignation, the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), an umbrella body of over 40 farmer organisations spearheading the movement against the farm laws, also announced that they would hold a massive "Kisan Mahapanchayat" on October 26 in the state capital, Lucknow.

These latest developments seem to have upset the BJP top brass. The saffron party held a meeting on October 12, to discuss these knotty issues. Leaders like party national president JP Nadda, state President Swatantra Dev, secretary BL Santosh, UP in-charge Radha Mohan Singh, election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan, and the state BJP's organisational secretary, Sunil Bansal took part in the meeting.

BJP sources revealed that they decided not to sack the junior home minister, Ajay Mishra, although the party leadership was apprehensive about alienating the farming community. Sources said party leaders also feared expansion of the farmers' agitation across the state. 

Political analysts believe that the ruling dispensation has no sympathy with farmers. Atul Chandra, former resident editor of  The Times of India, says: "It was only the pressure from the judiciary that led to the arrest of the minister’s son, otherwise the Yogi government was not in the mood to arrest the accused.” 

Another political observer, Sanjay Sharma, said to woo brahmins, the BJP is shielding the muscle man-turned-politician (Mishra) who openly delivered a provocative speech against farmers. The UP government’s tardy action against the culprit, who allegedly mowed down the agitating farmers, showed its apathy toward the infuriated farmers, he added.

However, some political commentators believe that BJP leaders are making a political mistake if they think that Ajay Mishra is a representative of brahmins. Prof Ramesh Dixit said: “The BJP is shielding Ajay Mishra as he is a member of the brahmin community, but people with tainted past are never community leaders", adding that the “Modi led government is muzzling the voices of farmers.”

Farmer leader Yogendra Yadav said it was a mistake to assume that BJP is not a casteist party, adding that  BJP leaders like Manohar Lal  Khattar and Ajay Maisha have been promoting violence against the protesting farmers. After the Lakhimpur incident, the BJP's anti-farmer and pro-caste faced has been publicly unmasked, he added.

Meanwhile, the shielding of Ajay Mishra by BJP is turning into a  political weapon in the hands of the opposition parties for use against  BJP in the 2022 Assembly elections. So far, the BJP leadership has been hesitant to accept farmers' demand for Mishra’s resignation from the government.

But, sources said that BJP is worried about the falloutof the Lakhimpur incident in the Assembly elections, as the UP government is already facing criticism from different quarters because of its mismanagement during the COVID-19 catastrophe. 

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Uttar Pradesh.