BJP’s Claim of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’ No Longer Convinces Majority of Voters: CSDS Survey

Will the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retain its power at the Centre after the 2019 general elections?

As of today, there are more number of people in this country who do not want the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA to return to power than those who do — says the latest round of the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), a Delhi-based research institution.

The survey conducted between 28 April and 17 May among 15,859 respondents has covered 175 assembly constituencies (each located in a different Lok Sabha constituency) across 19 states of India.

As per the survey findings, 47 per cent of the respondents believed that Modi government does not merit another opportunity, while 39 per cent thought it deserves a second innings, and the rest 14 per cent were non-committal. These numbers for the NDA are about as bad as those that had been recorded for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in July 2013, nine months before the 2014 elections.

In the last four years of Narendra Modi’s rule, while the BJP’s utter failure in fulfilling their promises made during the 2014 election campaign has become evident, the country also witnessed large-scale unprecedented struggles led by various communities — peasants, workers, students, women and other oppressed sections. Reflecting this scenario, while only 30 per cent respondents of the survey opined that there has been development for all sections, 42 per cent believed the promised development had been limited to benefitting only the rich. Overall, the survey found that nearly two-thirds of the voters now carry a negative opinion of the development that has taken place under the NDA regime.

BJP Slips Further As Anti-Incumbency Sets In

The survey found the rising anti-incumbency sentiment against the present regime, as the support base for the BJP has been shrinking. The voters supporting the BJP rule have fallen by seven percentage points, from 39 per cent in May last year (first MOTN survey) to 32 per cent now. If elections were conducted today, the survey says, the NDA would be getting about 37 per cent of the total votes, while suggesting that the Congress-led UPA would secure 31 per cent votes nationally, leaving 32 per cent votes to the other parties (non-NDA and non-UPA). In the aftermath of the Karnataka elections, where the Congress found a new ally in JD(S), while simultaneously signalling for a larger coalition, these figures reveal that the BJP-led NDA is losing ground.

Unemployment, GST

The survey found that unemployment remains the biggest concern of the voters. It is found that nearly 57 per cent of voters said that finding jobs in their area has become more difficult in the last three to four years. The figure had been eight points lower at 49 per cent during the last MOTN survey conducted in January. Apart from unemployment, the unpopularity of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has only been increasing. More than 40 per cent of the respondents felt that the GST was harsh, which is 11 percentage points more than the last conducted (January) survey.

Meanwhile, on the subject of personal economic situation, the survey found that the number of people who feel that their total household income falls short of meeting their needs has nearly doubled from 14 per cent in January to 27 per cent now.

Regional Picture

South India continues to be the region where the BJP fares the worst with only 18 per cent vote share, whereas in north India too, the voters seem to be far less inclined towards the BJP than they were five months ago. The survey found that the NDA continues to lead over UPA in western and central India, while maintaining a stable ground in the eastern region of the country. However, the survey predicts that the Congress is performing better than the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, although the BJP is maintaining an overall edge over the Congress, the latter has made substantial gains in the past five months.

The following tables show the voting intentions in different parts of the country:

The complete survey report can be found here.