COP28: Global Emissions may Drop Just 2% Against Required 43% by 2030, Says UN Report

New Delhi: Global emissions are predicted to drop just 2% below the 2019 levels by 2030, as compared to a 43% reduction needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, according to a new report by the United Nations.

The report comes ahead of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, where countries are expected to push for stronger climate action to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

According to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of top climate scientists, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030, compared with the 2019 levels. This is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) analysed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 195 parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until September 25.

In line with the findings of last year's analysis, the new report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to the 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to the 2010 levels. This is a marginal improvement over last year's assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

The report showed global emissions are projected to be 2% below the 2019 levels by 2030, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.

In order to achieve peaking of emissions before 2030, the report says, "The conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms." "Today's synthesis report of national climate plans underscores the need for us to act with greater ambition and urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement – there is simply no time left for delays," COP28 President Designate Sultan Al Jaber said.

"COP28 must be a historic turning point in this critical decade for parties to seize the moment of the Global Stocktake to commit to raise their ambition and to unite, act and deliver outcomes that keep 1.5 C within reach, while leaving no one behind," he said.

"Today's report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai to get on track," said UN Climate Change Executive-Secretary Simon Stiell.

"This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree on what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them," he said.

Stiell said the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas and get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The Global Stocktake is a two-year UN review process to evaluate collective global progress in meeting the Paris Agreement's goals. Initiated in Glasgow in 2021, the first-ever GST will conclude at the annual climate talks in Dubai in December.

The stocktake is intended to inform the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement (known as NDCs) to be put forward by 2025, paving the way for accelerated action.

"The Global Stocktake report released by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries. Billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work," Stiell said.