Elections 2019: UP Gathbandhan to Gain Owing to Lack of Support for BJP Candidate in Gorakhpur

Gorakhpur, once considered the safest seat for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have become a dicey seat for the saffron party, as locals are visibly unhappy following its decision to field ‘outsider’ Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan to take on Rambhual Nishad of the Samajwadi Party- Bahujan Samaj Party gathbandhan.

NewsClick spoke to the local people to know whether BJP, which has long been carrying the tag of an "upper caste" party and enjoyed the patronage of the Rajput community, will be able to bank on its earlier voters or it will be split in this Lok Sabha polls.

Rameshwar Pandey, former president of the Employees’ Union of Deen Dayal Upadhyaya (DDU) Gorakhpur University told NewsClick, "Public opinion of upper caste has turned against the ruling BJP as of now. They have declared Rambhual Nishad as a winner. The anger against BJP has grown after ticket was denied to Upendra Dutt Shukla, a Brahmin leader, who lost to Praveen Nishad with a narrow margin in the by-polls. However, despite being a BJP leader, Shukla has a stronghold in every political party because he is a zameeni neta (local leader) and people from different parties had appealed silently to the people to vote for Shukla during last year’s by-polls. With Ravi Kishan’s candidature, Brahmins are angry as he is an outsider. Therefore, upper caste votes will go to either NOTA or Congress, if they field a Brahmin candidate. In such a situation, the gathbandhan will gain but if Congress announces an OBC candidate, then BJP's Ravi Kishan will be slightly benefited."

Also read:Elections 2019: Why BJP's Safest Seat, Gorakhpur, is Looking Unsafe

When asked if Nishad community votes will be polarised after sitting MP Praveen Nishad has been denied ticket from Gorakhpur, Pandey added, "Nishad votes are a deciding factor in any election in Gorakhpur. The community had planned to unite in this election and vote for Nishad Party president Sanjay Nishad's son Praveen but with him being fielded from neighbouring Sant Kabir Nagar, tables have turned now. Majority of Nishad voters will now go in favour of the SP-BSP alliance candidate Rambhual Nishad.”

On Monday, April 15, BJP announced seven Lok Sabha candidates from Uttar Pradesh. The saffron party has done shuffling in some seats of Eastern UP. Praveen Nishad, sitting MP from Gorakhpur who won the Lok Sabha by-poll from SP seat in 2018 but switched over to BJP a couple of weeks back, is the BJP candidate from Sant Kabir Nagar.

Where will Nishad Votes Go

Akhilesh Nishad who is working in a private sector company in Gorakhpur told NewsClick, "Ravi Kishan will not get Nishad voteS for sure and 90% votes of the community’s votes will go to SP-BSP candidate Rambhual Nishad. He is a veteran leader and comes from our community. In the past, when the land where Ekalavya's statue- who we worship as lord- stands was occupied by others, he was the man who saved it. Meanwhile, Nishad Party chief Sanjay Nishad is also a good leader and had led the protest for Nishad community reservation but his son Praveen was not given ticket in the party’s area of influence.

He added, “Sanjay Nishad joined hands with BJP because he was assured by the party that Praveen will get ticket from Gorakhpur and his father Sanjay will be fielded from Maharajganj and two more reserved seats but all efforts went in vein.”

Also read: Elections 2019: Major Setback for BJP in UP, Rajbhar Party's SBSP to Contest Solo

Nishad Party’s Gorakhpur president Ram Ratan Nishad is also upset over Praveen’s constituency. He told NewsClick, “Nishad community vote will directly go to the alliance now. People are upset for choosing an outsider candidate. In case BJP had picked up Praveen or Amrendra Nishad, BIP could have won Gorakhpur easily as we have over 3.5 lakh Nishad votes here. Moreover, Praveen will also not be in winning position from Sant Kabeer Nagar because there we have over 2.5 lakh votes and the Brahmins will not vote for the BJP there because alliance has already fielded a Brahmin candidate, MP Bhishma Shankar alias Kushal Tiwari son of former MLA Hari Shankar Tiwari.”

Impact of Neighbouring Seats

The local people’s survey predicts that BJP would suffer damages in Uttar Pradesh. In three seats- Gorakhpur, Sant Kabeer Nagar and Deoria- chances are very less for the saffron party. Apart from Ravi Kishan, BJP gave ticket to  Ramapati Ram Tripathi from Deoria. Ram Tripathi is the father of sitting MP Sharad Triparthi who has been denied a Lok Sabha ticket this time. He paid the price for beating party MLA with his shoes.

In Deoria, the arithmetic is totally different. Local people have claimed that both BJP and BSP-SP candidates are not good.

Deoria based political activist Mohhamad Arif told NewsClick, "Situation in Deoria district is the same like in Gorakhpur and other constituencies. People are opposing BJP’s Tripathi and BSP’s Vinod Kumar Jaiswal for being ‘outsider’. In this condition, Congress candidate Niyaz Ahmad is in good position and he is from Deoria itself. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Niyaz was defeated by Kalraj Mishra but he secured 2.32 lakh votes from BSP symbol. However, this time party did not give him ticket and picked up an outsider candidate from Bihar and people will not give him vote at any cost.”