Experts Call for Early Warning as Hindu Kush Himalaya Region May Face Extreme Weather Events

Patna/Kathmandu: Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the onset of monsoon on time this year, after a scorching summer, experts have warned that the countries, such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region should brace for what might be a difficult monsoon season ahead. They have warned that these countries are likely to witness above average temperatures and higher rainfall than normal this year.

Scientists at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) have said that the weather outlook for June to September comes after a heatwave broke temperature records across the region last month, forcing schools to close, impacting crops and sparking forest fires.

While pre-monsoon showers have provided relief to parts of South Asia this month, the climate outlook published recently suggests that any respite may be temporary.

The consensus from technical experts at the 28 sessions of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) held on April 29, 2024 in Pune, India is that the El Niño (it refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures) conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region are likely to weaken, giving way to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season. (ENSO has a significant impact on monsoon variability.)

During the second half of the southwest monsoon season, La Niña (periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures) conditions are likely to develop: conditions commonly associated with above normal rain.

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan are all expected to receive higher rainfall. And this rainfall will happen in a context of an overall warming trend: of high-than-normal both minimum and maximum temperatures, the scientists have predicted.

“In spite of the fact that last year was a year of below average rainfall in many parts of the HKH countries, we saw catastrophic floods hit region after region, community after community, in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya,” said Mandira Shrestha, programme coordinator, Climate Services, at ICIMOD, said at the forum.

The climate outlook said that “In that context, this year’s monsoon outlook is worrying. It is also set against an overall warming trend, which we know is linked to greater melting of snow and glacier and the loss of the permafrost – the hidden glue that stabilises many mountain slopes, and whose thawing is often a key factor in the sorts of devastating flash floods and landslides we are now seeing across our region. This forecast is an alert for funders, multilateral agencies and disaster management officials in governments: multi-hazard early warning systems in this hugely populated region of rising risk must urgently be rolled out.”

One Extreme to Another: Record-Breaking Temperatures

While some regions will grapple with deadly downpours, others will face searing heat between June to September 2024.

As per the SASCOF-28 Climate Outlook, maximum temperatures between June to September 2024 suggest that the seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the region. Some isolated areas are likely to see normal to below normal maximum temperatures. The current heat wave is also likely to continue through the monsoon with minimum temperatures also likely to be higher than the normal.

The regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season over South Asia was collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of South Asia with support from international experts.