A Fractured Verdict in Spain

The Spanish elections have thrown up a fractured mandate in which not only no party has secured a majority, forming a stable coalition appears difficult. The right-wing Peoples Party, led by the current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, suffered the worst defeat for ruling party since 1982, losing 63 seats and retaining 123. The Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) secured 90 seats, but it is the first time that it has dipped below 100 in recent history. The surprising result of the elections was the performance of Podemos, who not only captured 61 seats, but was only a whisker below the Socialists in the popular vote. The Citizens Party or Ciudadanos, who campaigned on the single item agenda of corruption, came 4th.

If we look at the right and left balance in the Spanish elections, PP and Ciudadanos would be categorised as right and centre-right; the Socialists and Podemos would be centre-left and left. Here too, the verdict is nearly an even split, and neither of the two – PP and Ciudadanos or Socialists and Podemos can command a majority. While the Ciudadanos have less problems in combining with PP, the relations between the Socialists and Podemos is more thorny, particularly on issues of self-determination for Catalonia and Basque regions in Spain. While Podemos would support a referendum for self-determination in these areas, all the other three major parties including the Socialists, are strongly against any such move.

Undoubtedly, the story of these elections is the strong showing of the anti-austerity Podemos. Podemos had come out in support of Syriza in its battle against the EU leadership a few months back. After Syriza throwing in the towel in its fight against the EU leadership, it was felt that Podemos and its leader Pablo Iglesias had lost steam, and would not emerge with a strong showing. The results showed that the anti-austerity platform has a considerable support among the Spanish, particularly the youth. Podemos also gained support in those regions that have strong movements for independence. For a fledgeling party, it not only to put up a credible show but almost beat to the third place the established Socialist Party, who have alternated with PP as the ruling party in post-Franco Spain. This is a huge political victory for Podemos. It has now 20% votes, as compared to PP with about 29% and Socialists with 22%. It is now very much a contender for the top position in any future elections that would be held, in case no stable coalition now emerges. Its rise has been even faster than Syriza's in Greece.

The only way a stable coalition can emerge from this fractured mandate is if the PP and the Socialists come together. This would be near impossible for the Socialists, as the PP has been badly discredited with its aggressive pro-austerity policies and a trail of corruption. The combination of the other three – Socialists, Podemos, and Ciudadanos, is also difficult as Ciudadanos started as an anti self-determination party. The chances are that we will see another elections in a few months, with PP and Podemos emerging as the two main contenders.

In any case, the stability of the European Union, with a consensus on austerity among the political class, is increasingly breaking down. We seem to be entering interesting times in Europe.

Image Courtesy: englishradionews.com