Haryana Assembly Elections: Is Ruling BJP in a Quandary?

Haryana Finance Minister J P Dalal on Tuesday sent the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) into a tizzy by saying, while addressing a rally in Bhiwani district, that if the Congress wins the upcoming Assembly elections and forms the government, "our leaders sitting in Delhi" will ensure that the Congress government does not last more than six months. Dalal's statement, ahead of the October 1 elections, is an indication that BJP is losing ground in Haryana.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election results seem to confirm that the BJP's electoral ground is slipping. Congress saw a 12.3% increase in its margin of victory compared with the 2019 Lok Sabha election results across Assembly constituencies. Meanwhile, the BJP witnessed a swing of 2.17%. The swing percentage shows how the party's vote margin has changed in the same constituency between the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Booth-level data shows that BJP gained in 44 of the 90 Assembly constituencies while the Congress gained in 42 and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in four. It is important to remember here that the Congress had an alliance with AAP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Haryana is among states in India where the youth are seriously concerned about getting a government job. In the recently held Lok Sabha elections, the issues of unemployment and farmers dominated the campaign, because of which BJP lost 5 Lok Sabha seats and Congress got a big advantage.

Unemployment and minimum support price (MSP) are big issues in Haryana, where agriculture play a vital role in the economy. The Haryana unit of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) has been raising important issues, like fair prices for crops and building a memorial for the farmers killed during the year-long protests against the three farm laws.

The state’s farmers and youth in general want the Agniveer Yojana (for short-term recruitment in the armed forces) to be stopped immediately, as the youth of Haryana have been the most affected by this scheme. Haryana is one of the states from where the maximum number of youth are employed in defence/security agencies.

With polling for the 90-seat Haryana Assembly will be held on October 1, the ruling BJP has been running a campaign called 'Non-stop Haryana' across the state, while the Bupinder Singh Hooda-led Congress has been running a campaign called 'Haryana Maange Hisaab'. Both the parties are trying their best to gain public support.

Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party’s (JJP) disillusionment with BJP is also a factor that cannot be ignored. In the previous Assembly, JJP had 10 MLAs with whose help the BJP formed a coalition government. But, due to the farmers' movement and ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, JJP broke ties with BJP, which benefited Congress in the elections. JJP is mainly a Jat community-dominated party and due to the farmers' movement, its support base has decreased. In these elections, JJP is not with BJP and there is a split withing the JJP as well, the full benefit of which seems to have gone to Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Setting aside all other issues, the BJP decided to make an OBC (Other Backward Classes) the Chief Minister ahead of the recent Lok Sabha elections to counter the influence of the Jat community in Haryana politics. But the election results show that their strategy has not yielded the expected results. Instead, the Jat versus non-Jat factor seems to have united the Jat voters and led the community to vote strategically so that non-BJP candidates from their community got their votes.

Another worry for BJP is the discontent among the general electorate over former Chief Minister M L Khattar's signature scheme, the Parivar Pehchan Patra (PPP). The scheme has been widely criticised for improper data collection due to which residents were not able to avail benefits of various government schemes. These include the state's most popular pension scheme, which was first launched by former Deputy Prime Minister and Jat leader Devi Lal.

Apart from this, the youth are having a tough time in Haryana. Though the situation is similar across the country, Haryana’s youth are facing the brunt of unemployment, now that at jobs in agriculture and the armed forces are not as reliable as before. leading to growing insecurity. Agriculture is no longer profitable, and there are no good jobs in industries either. Even the Agnipath Yojana, a scheme to provide short-term jobs in the armed forces, offers no job security.

The debate over job opportunities in Haryana has, therefore, heated up. Both the government and the Opposition have been arguing about the unemployment rates, although some data show that Haryana has the highest unemployment in India. Because of this, many people are leaving Haryana in search of better opportunities, or thousands of students are going abroad for studies.

In places, such as Gurgaon, which is known for business and industries, investment has slowed down due to various reasons. Good jobs are getting harder to find. For farmers and youth of Haryana, earning a decent income has become the biggest challenge.

According to CMIE (Centre of Monitoring the Indian Economy) data, Haryana has the highest unemployment rate in India as compared to the PLFS (the government’s periodic labour force survey) data, which puts it in the fourth place. According to CMIE, Haryana has performed worse than neighbouring states Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal and even Rajasthan.

The state government did try to fix the jobs crisis, but the high court has put a stay on the proposals for 75%quota for local workers. This jobs crisis is evident from the increase in the number of people going out of country, including to conflict-torn countries like Israel and Ukraine.

In addition, rising inflation and low income are also impacting household budgets.

The condition of workers in Haryana, too, remains pathetic. As per Jai Bhagwan, general secretary of the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), about 50 to 60 lakh workers work in various industrial sectors in the state, including auto, textile and related industries. Talking to NewsClick, he said according to 2022 data, only 50% i.e. about 28 lakh workers, were registered under Employees State Insurance (ESI). That is, more than half of the workers in the state are not covered by ESI and related government benefits.

Due to ineffective of labour laws, a large number of workers does not even get minimum wages. In the auto industry, minimum wages are still available but other workers do not even get minimum wages, he said.

The condition of workers in textiles, shoe industry is very bad. According to Bhagwan, the workers in these industries are made to work for 12 hours but are paid for only eight hours of work. The Bahadurgarh's shoe industry is considered to be the biggest industry in Asia with about three lakh workers. But neither do they get ESI deductions nor overtime wages, as per the labour laws, he added.

Therefore, there is widespread apprehension that the upcoming Assembly election in Haryana will not be a smooth ride for the ruling BJP. There is a sense of change in the air, and the BJP minister’s statement cited above, seems to highlight that, too.

The writer is a Delhi-based freelance journalist. The views are personal.