Impending Fall of the Rebel Enclave in Aleppo.

There have been fast moving developments in Syria, the most important being the impending fall of the rebel enclave of east Aleppo. It is now only a matter of days before the al Qaeda and its allies are routed by the Syrian Government and its allies.

Last week, the Syrian Arab Army and its allies – Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah and Palestinian Liwa al Quds brigade – broke through, cutting the east Aleppo rebel enclave into two, and then gaining control of its northern part. This is roughly 40% of east Aleppo. The rebel alliance led by Syrian al Qaeda – Jabhat al Nusra now rebranded as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham – along with Ahrar al Sham (or al Qaeda lite), various factions of the so-called Free Syrian Army, the rag-tag bands fully allied to al Qaeda, armed and supported by the NATO powers -- retreated south, the only remaining part of the east Aleppo enclave. As we write, not only are the Syrian government forces advancing, they are in the process of splitting the remaining pocket under rebel control also into two. The Syrian forces are less than a kilometre apart -- from the Aleppo citadel to the Aleppo international airport -- both of which are now under government control.

Image Courtesy: https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/مشفی-العیون-کرم-قاطرجی-و-طحان14اذر95.jpg

Meanwhile, according to UN estimates, about 30,000 civilians have left the rebel controlled pockets, most of them going to government held areas, with the rest to Kurdish held areas north of Aleppo. While the mainstream western media has been talking of war crimes committed by Syrian government and its allies, they have been remarkably quiet on the stories of the civilians leaving rebel held areas, stories of the nightmare of al Qaeda rule and shooting of civilians who wanted to evacuate. The reality of the NATO supported “rebels” holding civilians hostage, does not square up with the picture that the mainstream media has been peddling of a benign Free Syrian Army and a bloodthirsty Assad regime.

All attempts by the UN Rapporteur Stefan Mistura to arrange a ceasefire and leave east Aleppo under rebel control, has failed. For the Syrian government, agreeing to such an arrangement would be “snatching” a stalemate from clear cut military victory that is only a few weeks away. Why Mistura is proposing such harebrained schemes difficult to fathom. Perhaps its is the last gasp of western diplomacy, which still believes that it can reverse on the diplomatic table the military results on the ground.

Interestingly, al Qaeda, the supposed original target of the Global War on Terror finds hardly a mention in the “despatches” of the western news agencies and media outlets. Most readers of western media believe that the fight in Aleppo is between the Free Syrian Army and Bashar al Assad's government forces, and not be aware that the Free Syrian Army is only a convenient excuse for the west to support al Qaeda led front in its fight against the Assad government.

There is no question that civilians are the victims in any war, particularly urban wars. It is no different in Aleppo. But it is sheer propaganda when the media writes that Mosul awaits liberation, where American bombs always fall with pin point accuracy, while in eastern Aleppo civilians are being mercilessly carpet bombed by Russians and Syrians. In Falluja, Ramadi, Manbij and Kobane, the NATO bombers flattened the towns; as they are doing right now in Mosul. To believe that Russian-Syrian bombings are different from the NATO ones, demands an extraordinary naivete; or the conversion of journalism to western government mouthpieces.

Negotiations are going on in Turkey between the rebel forces and the Russians. The goal – for the Russians – is a safe passage for the rebels to leave Aleppo, as has been achieved in East Ghouta and many other rebel pockets. The rebel forces under al Qaeda control, can leave for Idlib, as has been done in other rebel controlled pockets.

With fall of Aleppo, the Syrian government will be on much stronger footing. Aleppo was the biggest city in Syria and its industrial commercial centre. Restoring government control over eastern part that fell to rebels in 2012 will not only boost its morale, it will free a large number of its forces who had to be held back in Aleppo to protect the one million citizens still staying in western Aleppo.

The Syrian proxy war – or the civil war – is by no means over. But the balance is definitely shifting towards the Syrian government. Removing Assad militarily – as the west would like is no longer an option. The battle for Aleppo is a decisive turn on this war.

Front Page Image Courtesy: flickr.com