Israel: Whom the Gods Would Destroy, They First Make Mad

Israel has lost support of the minds and hearts of people around the world. The rain of death pouring into Gaza, the indiscriminate killing of civilians – the UN Reports show that about 80% of the 600 dead in Gaza are civilian – the pictures of dead children, all of it has shown the true face of Israel. It is and has always been a brutal settler colonial state that needs to get rid of the Palestinians in order to build Israel. Netanyahu's obscene comment of “telegenic dead Palestinian children” only brings out his desperation over losing the media battle.

In all earlier wars, Israel managed to control the visual feed – photos and videos – out of Gaza and Israel. This time around, they have failed. Even the main-stream media have been forced to carry some of the pictures and videos coming out of Gaza. In the age of Internet, smart phones and social media, control of the visual narrative is no longer possible.

The media battle is not helped when we have pictures of cheering crowds in Sderot hilltops – the Sderot cinema – clapping the “fireworks” over Gaza; or calls of death to Arabs while attacking peace rallies in Israel; or the call to kill Palestinian mothers so that they cannot breed; or the statement of the deputy speaker of the Knesset threatening genocide if Gazans do not leave for Sinai.

If Israel has lost the media battle, or at least been badly bruised, what about the military battle? Here, Israel's condition is even worse. Fighting a force that is badly armed, with no air force or armour, the 4th largest army in the world is finding itself in a tough fight. Forget the civilian death for the time being. In the death among combatants, Israel has lost 29 soldiers against about 120 of the Gaza resistance. This, for a force which has no body armour, with only a low level of arms, fighting a much superior army, is no mean feat. And this is more than double of the 10 soldiers killed in the 2008-09 and 2012 war in Gaza combined. Israel has suffered a level of losses that it did only against Hezbollah in the 2006 war when it invaded Lebanon. Worse, Hamas have claimed that it has taken one Israeli soldier prisoner and Israel military has confirmed that it does indeed have one soldier missing in action.

Neither have the rockets hitting Israel stopped. In a major Hamas victory, they have been able to strike areas close to the  Ben Gurion Airport, leading to all major international airlines – including US and EU carriers to suspend their flights to Israel. After MH 17, no air carrier has the stomach to face a region where rockets are flying. While the actual loss from the rocket fire in Israel have been low – only two have died from such rocket fire, it has disrupted normal life in Southern Israel. People not going to work have risen from about 6% normally, to more than 33%. The sounding of air raid sirens, taking shelter in strong rooms or air raid shelters creates a sense of vulnerability, which Israelis do not like.

If the Israelis believe that bombing civilians will break the morale of the Palestinian people in Gaza and turn them against Hamas, this has not happened. The world forgets the lessons of the Second World War – civilian casualties neither break the morale of the people nor weaken the war efforts. The German bombing of London, the Allied bombing of Germany, the firebombing of Tokyo all inflicted high casualties but had the reverse effect; it strengthened the resolve of the people to fight. In all the earlier battles as well, Hamas emerged stronger out of the bombing of Gaza or what Israel cynically call “mowing the Gaza lawns”.

The mainstream media -- the western news agencies, channels and papers – all report that in earlier wars, the support for the Hamas grew during te wars. Yet, they expect that as more civilians get killed, the more the likelihood that Palestinians in Gaza of suing for peace and turning against Hamas. It is the very foolish or the criminally insane who believe that the same actions in same situations will yield different returns, all evidence to the contrary.

Neither has Hamas rocket fire lead to the Israeli support for its Gaza war weakening. On both sides, the resolve of the people – in Israel to continue the slaughter of the civilians in Gaza and in Gaza to fire back irrespective of the consequences – have only strengthened.

So if the bombing of Gaza or even the ground war does not lead to weakening of the Hamas politically, what are then Israel's military objectives?

Israel believed that with the Iron Dome, they would be able to protect themselves and the bombing of Gaza could continue ad infinitum without any price to be paid by Israel. The myth of Iron Dome has been punctured, as 90% of the rockets, if not more, are getting through. That Gaza had the capability not only to beat the Iron Dome anti-missile shield, but also hit areas near Ben Gurien airport, Tel Aviv and Haifa, are indeed grim portends for Israel. As resistance in Gaza – and this is just not Hamas but include Islamic Jihad, the Marxist/left formations such as PFLP and DFLP – continued to fire rockets into Israel, Israel had the choice of either declaring a victory and a ceasefire, or extending their action to a land war in Gaza.

The ploy of having Tony Blair talk to Egypt and use Egypt as a cover for such a ceasefire failed. For Hamas, it was not possible to agree to a ceasefire in which they lose all the gains they had made during the 2012 cease fire. They not only continue to be under the suffocating blockade that Israel has illegally imposed on Gaza, but also have their leadership in West Bank, and prisoners that had been released after negotiations with Israel in 2011, in jail. It is also farcical that Israel was agreeing to a ceasefire called by Egypt, which Hamas came to know only through TV and radio. No body talked to the Hamas for the ceasefire. No body even now is talking to Hamas and its offer for ceasefire, which Gideon Levy, the Israeli journalist said does not have one unfounded condition.

Having failed in their ceasefire ploy, Israel had little option but up the ante and march into Gaza. It is here that Israel's military objectives become fuzzy. If they want to take out the armed resistance in Gaza, they will have to occupy Gaza militarily again. Re-occupying Gaza is the only option if they want to subjugate Hamas in Gaza militarily. It is not they had withdrawn from Gaza out of the goodness of their heart; it was the high cost of continued occupation of Gaza that had resulted in Israel withdrawing from Gaza in 2005, while keeping it under a blockade.

It is here that Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have received a rude shock. The resistance in Gaza has not only has developed superior rockets, but also are better armed than they were earlier. They have also built a sophisticated tunnel system, a tactics that Hezbollah has used successfully against Israel in Lebanon. The tunnels that have become a serious military problem. They run from Gaza into Israel and allow resistance fighters to enter Israel, bypassing troops at the border, engage Israeli forces and even attack their settlements. The tunnels are well constructed, have even electricity and allow fighters to carry arms and equipment.

What was originally a battle to take out Hamas rocket firing infrastructure has now become an attack to destroy the tunnels. What the Israelis are discovering is that this is not an easy task. The tunnels have multiple exits and entries that are well hidden. Air power has little effect against fighters using the tunnels, exposing Israeli forces to much higher casualties. In all the earlier wars in Gaza, Israel has been used to carpet bombing resistance positions and moving in only after everything was reduced to a rubble. That is why the civilian casualties in earlier wars have been so high, while Israeli casualties low. With now Gaza criss crossed by a tunnelling system, far more extensive than they anticipated, Israeli forces are taking casualties that are much higher than in the past wars. Mowing the lawns in Gaza, as a periodic, low-cost operation, is now no longer possible.

If Israel reaches a ceasefire without destroying either the tunnels or the rocket firing infrastructure, Hamas will not only have won major political victory, but also be stronger for the next round. If the Israelis re-occupy Gaza, it will inflict huge losses on both sides. Ehud Olmert had to go because Israel lost 121 soldiers in Lebanon in 2009. If it re-occupies Gaza, not only will Israel sustain high losses, but also continue to bleed as it did earlier.

The only sane course for Israel is to accept that a continuing siege of Gaza, backed up by periodic attacks, is no longer possible as a status quo. Once this is accepted, it will also have to accept that Gaza is a part of the larger problem of the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Having made a two-state solution virtually impossible by settlements in the West Bank, what is the end game for Israel? A two-state solutions where they dismantle the West Bank settlements? Or a one state solution in which Palestinians and Jews have qual rights – a modern, secular state based on citizenship and not identity?

I do not see Israel accepting any sane solution. The hatred and venom spewing out in the social media, the genocidal comments of the Israeli leaders in the press and television, make it impossible to see Israel adopt any other course than inflicting heavy damage to Gaza and itself and then withdrawing for another future round. An insane course that promises bloodletting every few years in war of attrition that Israel cannot win. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad. Israel is just the latest example.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick