Jasdan Bypoll: Can BJP Win Congress bastion in Gujarat After Losing Three States?

Jasdan, a constituency in Rajkot district of Saurashtra region in Gujarat is all set for a by-election on December 20 this year, which was necessitated when Congress veteran leader and five-time MLA of the constituency, Kuvarji Bavaliya, resigned from the assembly in July, this year.

Bavaliya, who was reportedly disgruntled after Paresh Dhanani, a young Congress leader – junior to him – was made Leader of Opposition, quit Congress soon after, and joined BJP.

Hours after joining BJP, he was inducted as a cabinet minister in the BJP government with three portfolios – Water Supply, Animal Husbandry and Rural Housing.

The December 20 by-election is crucial for Bavaliya. A loss would prove to be detrimental for his political career. The BJP is desperate to clinch Jasdan, and increase its number in the assembly and in Saurashtra region. In the last state election in December 2017, BJP’s count in Saurashtra (of total 48 seats) had shrunk from 30 – won in 2012 – to only 19. Moreover, the party had barely managed to retain power in 2017 assembly election, winning only 99 of 182 seats.

Notably, about 33 per cent of the electoral population of Jasdan constituency comprises Koli community. A popular Koli leader of the region, Bavaliya, has won from Jasdan with huge margins even when Narendra Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat.

Primarily, an agrarian region, Saurashtra region was always a BJP bastion since 1995. However, the semi-arid region battling with water scarcity voted against the party in 2017 election, reportedly owing to the agrarian crisis that is still looming over the farmers of the region, who mostly belong to Patel and Koli communities.

The Koli community is a crucial vote bank in Saurashtra region that dominates at least 15 assembly seats, followed by the Patels. With Bavaliya joining, BJP is hoping to revive the party in Saurashtra, especially ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won all 26 seats in Gujarat. This time, however, this kind performance seems unlikely in the upcoming elections. 

“Bavaliya will win on grounds of the work he has undertaken, and besides, BJP has the edge of having better micro-level booth management skills,” Bharat Pandya, BJP’s Gujarat spokesperson told reporters.

As for Congress, it will be a prestige issue to retain its bastion, as the party has never lost this seat since Gujarat was declared a separate state—except for in 2009, when the BJP had won the bypoll.

The party has fielded Avchar Nakia, who had once worked under Bavaliya, and is also a Koli leader of the region. Announcing his candidature, Amit Chavda, GPCC (Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee) president, said, “Nakia is former vice-president of Rajkot district panchayat, and a sitting member of Rajkot district panchayat. He is the leader of Koli community who has been associated with the party for very long.”

Avchar Nakia, 47-year-old leader is a resident of Pipardi village, Vinchiya taluka in Jasdan constituency. He has studied till class VII, and runs a factory. Once a close aide and campaign manager of Bavaliya for years, he remained in Congress when Bavaliya quit the party with many other supporters. Nakia will be contesting assembly election for the first time, as compared to 63-year-old Bavaliya, a veteran politician, who has also been an MP once .

Nonetheless, BJP has left no stone unturned with the announcement of 35 star campaigners to campaign for Bavaliya. Some of the names include senior leaders like Saurabh Patel, Smriti Irani and Paresh Raval etc. Some of the Gujarat ministers have, in fact, skipped their official duties, and have camped in Jasdan to hold multiple meetings. While Vijay Rupani himself has not campaigned for Bavaliya, his wife Anjali has.

Expecting the Koli votes to be divided between the two Koli candidates, BJP has sent all its Patidar heavyweight leaders to woo Patel votes, now being considered crucial for the win, said local BJP leaders.

Interstingly, ahead of the bypoll, the Vijay Rupani-led BJP government on December 18, waived rural power bills of Rs 620 crore of about 6.2 lakhs defaulting farmers. The government also announced that the farmers could get new electricity connections at a fee of only Rs 500. To add to this, the BJP government also announced the construction of a branch of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) at Rajkot district. 

Both the announcements, however, have invited notice from the Election Commission for violation of the model code of conduct.

The decisions, as Congress claimed, are a desperate measure at gaining electoral goodwill ahead of the bypoll.

Meanwhile, the Congress has also thrown all its hefty leaders into the game to campaign for political debutante Avsar Nakia. Navjot Sidhu, former CM Shankar Sinh Vaghela, Rajya Sabha MP Amhed Patel, Leader of Opposition Paresh Dhanani, President of Gujarat Congress Amit Chavda have campaigned for Nakia.

“Local residence of Jasdan are upset over Bavaliya quitting the party, and joining BJP,” Manish Doshi, Congress spokesperson, told the media, adding that the party is sure of winning again in Jasdan.

Notably, the party has also campaigned extensively against the lack of insurance coverage for the farmers in the region.

The counting for Jasdan by-election will be held on December 23.  In total, 19 candidates have filed the nomination, as declared by an official of the Election Commission. Apart from Congress and BJP, there are seven independent candidates who have filed their nomination.

As the campaign for the bypoll ended on December 19, while the BJP concluded with a massive bike and car rally, Congress pulled in Navjot Sidhu along with other senior leaders of the state in a public meeting in the constituency. On the other hand, most of the names from the list of the ‘star campaigners’ of BJP did not turn up, including Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani.