Trump or Hilary: Between the Known Devil and the Unknown Deep Sea

Why should any of us outside the US give a fig for their elections? Do I really care who they elect and what happens to those including Non-Resident Indians who live there? Unfortunately for rest of the world, it does matter who wins the US Presidential elections. We only have to see what US foreign policy has – or more correctly its wars have – done, to know that the US elections matter to all of us. The US might not be the sole global hegemon, as it was a few years ago, but it is still pretty much in a class by itself even in today's multipolar world.

Just look at what is happening to the region that concerns us closely – West Asia. The bulk of India's invisible income -- essentially expats sending money back to India -- originates from this region. These earnings in foreign exchange are second only to the country's IT sector earnings. The remittances in 2015 accounted for an income of $68.9 billion, as against $82 billion from the IT sector. Unlike the IT sector, which also requires large imports in foreign exchange terms such as computers and imported software, the remittances are net foreign exchange earnings. This is why India's balance of payments is crucially dependent on remittances from West Asia. If wars devastate this region, as the US manufactured wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya have done or are doing, or if such wars spill over to other countries, this has serious implications for our balance of payments. This is apart from other blow backs of such wars. Let us not forget that it is these wars that have led to the growth of ISIS and other such sectarian forces in the region.  

The Libyan case is particularly important as it is not so well known. The so-called “surgical” regime change operation in Libya against Gaddafi not only broke up Libya, but also caused extremist and sectarian forces to spill over into Nigeria to Mali; and also into Syria. The growth of these forces in the region using a violent and sectarian form of Islam, is a consequence of the extremely stupid NATO intervention in Libya. Not very different from what the US unleashed in Afghanistan and later on in Syria. The US armed forces intelligence wing admits that the growth of ISIS was not merely winked at by the US administration during but was actually “a wilful Washington decision”.

Looking at the US elections, the two main contenders being a loudmouthed braggart and a racist – Donald Trump – and Hilary Clinton, a hawk comparable to George Bush in going to war in West Asia. We are faced with an almost impossible situation. Can we trust a Trump to have his finger on the nuclear trigger, who wants to know why the US can't use nuclear weapons? Or are we comfortable with Hilary, who was so delighted when Gaddafi was brutalised and killed, was all for overthrowing Assad in Syria and is totally on board on NATO's eastwards march towards Russia?

We may all be concerned about the US elections, but what can we do? We certainly cannot go there and cast a vote. Even if the US claims to be an exceptional state – that its laws override international law. Remember that the US Supreme Court ruled that the US had a right under its domestic laws to kidnap a president of another country – Panama – and try him in the US? That it did not need a UN Security Council resolution to attack Iraq, even though it is a violation of the UN Charter and international law?

So even if we cannot vote, we should voice our concern on what is happening in the US elections. It is not one of Tweedledeum and Tweedledee, which it was for a long time in the US elections. Trump represents the triumph of the television spectacle over politics, and the victory of TRP over serious debate. This is not true for the US alone, look at what is happening in India, and we will see that we have now entered into a new age of politics. It privileges social media over media, and media over mass politics. If Hitler and Mussolini were built by cinema and radio, cable TV and social media have built Trump and Modi.

But while the danger of a Trump is obvious to even a half-way decent human being, Hilary's views on wars in West Asia, her support for ratcheting up the war hysteria over Ukraine, the dangers of a renewed nuclear race with Russia, all of these are tucked away into a “strategic consensus” within the US elite. Here, Trump, his racism and ignorance aside, is the great unknown. He may bomb anybody, probably depending on how he thinks he would look on television; or decide that the US should return to a non-interventionist path instead of endless wars. We simply do not know what Trump represents, and are doubtful whether he does himself.

Hilary on the other hand is clear. She wants to bomb the Assad government in Syria, in spite of knowing that it will benefit the ISIS and Al Qaeda forces there. She will sabotage whatever remains of the Iran accord, where the US is still refusing to honour its commitments on releasing illegally seized Iranian funds. We know where we stand with Hilary – down a slippery slope to more wars and nuclear confrontation with Russia.

One can look at other long term implications. It has been argued by Mark Weisbrot that though Hilary is a hawk, the peace lobby among the Democrats is stronger than among the Replubicans. Ergo support Hilary for peace, even if she personally wants war. Others have argued that a Trump victory may mean a Supreme Court that will continue with its conservative majority and a further weakening of women's right to abortion; it will also mean a continuation of a Senate and House majority for the Republicans. A Trump rout may change these equations. All of these may make sense to the US citizens. For those outside, we can only marvel at world's “greatest” democracy throwing up two such unsavoury candidates.

Various people have argued that the people in the US need to defeat fascism and Trump. Others have argued that this “greater evil” or “lesser evil” theories have only shifted the politics of various countries to the right and we need to build an alternate politics. That unless we are willing to say that we need to find real alternatives -- and not this fraud of "lesser evilism” -- we only disarm all progressive and left politics.

The US is not the only country where such choices are being hotly debated. From Europe to India, we need to discuss how we build a different politics. Or are we always going to choose the lesser evil and be condemned to unending wars and neoliberal economic policies of market fundamentalists?

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick.