Is Turkey Trying Its Luck in Afrin and Manbij?

Turkish forces, including its armoured and artillery units, have been seen moving towards the border town of Afrin, 40 kilometres from Aleppo, in Syria. The Turkish authorities have notified NATO about an upcoming offensive in Afrin and Manbij, both under the control of Kurdish forces and part of Rajova. The military manoeuvre, which experts argue, projects the desperation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to keep his border with Syria clean of Kurdish forces.

“We will complete the process that we launched with the Euphrates Shield Operation in Afrin and Manbij and we will guarantee peace and security on all our borders,” he said during his address to his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

According to the latest reports, Turkish forces have begun shelling the Afrin region on Friday, but many consider this as just an empty threat more to do with intimations. The Turkish military fired several artillery shells and missiles towards the towns of Iskan, Shader, and Jamah in the southern part of the Afrin Canton.

The present operation is an extension of an earlier military adventure ‘Operation Euphrates Shield’ in the region. Erdogan had to abandon his earlier pursuit against Kurds in the mask of targeting Islamic state was thwarted because of opposition from Russia. The 2017 operation drove a wedge between YPG-held territories east and west of the Euphrates River, preventing the Kurds from gaining a “corridor” along the Turkish border, which would have an outlet to the Mediterranean Sea.

The renewed push by Turkish forces to take over Afrin and Manbij, which began after the US announced a border force made of Kurdish elements in Syria, could be a disaster. Currently, Afrin is under the ‘de-escalation zone’ overseen by Russia and Syria as per the Astana agreement. Also, the Russians have their troops deployed at the Kafr Jannah base, which is wedged between Azaz in the Turkish-controlled Euphrates Shield zone and Afrin, placing it directly in the line of Turkish fire.

Damascus has clearly said that any move by Turkish forces inside Syria will be considered an act of war. “We warn the Turkish leadership that if they initiate combat operations in the Afrin area, that will be considered an act of aggression by the Turkish Army,” Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Meqdad said in a statement reported by state media.

"The Syrian air defenses have restored their full force and they are ready to destroy Turkish aviation targets in Syrian Arab Republic skies," it added.

Any assault in Afrin, without the support of Turkish air force, will be difficult as it’s a mountainous region and not manoeuvrable for heavy armoured tanks and weaponry. The Turkish forces will also face heavy resistance from Kurdish-led People's Protection Units (YPG), and getting into the region will not be easy as Erdogan may think.

The area has around 500,000 civilians, including refugees from elsewhere in Syria and the impending Turkish operation will bring havoc and lead to heavy causality.

Kurds in Afrin has warned of heavy resistance against any Turkish aggression. According to reports, protesters gathered in the predominantly Kurdish city Thursday against Turkish move.

"Today the people are protesting to assure that Afrin will never fall into the Turkish traitors' hands,” said a female protester.

“Erdogan listen: neither you, ISIS nor FSA [Free Syrian Army], you and all of your mercenaries can't break our will and stop interfering in our land and be aware that Kurds from all countries will come to defend us.”

Retired Brig. Gen. Haldun Solmazturk, who is a senior fellow in the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute, told it will not be possible for Turkish forces to launch an operation in Afrin under present circumstances.

"It's unthinkable for either the U.S. or Russia to allow such a military intervention against Kurds,"

Turkey’s military move, which is out of frustration, is a reflection of its failure to persuade the US to end its support for the Kurds. Also, Russia’s interest to include Kurds in the Syrian peace process has infuriated Erdogan.

Meanwhile, Ankara is also trying backdoor methods to achieve its goals. According to reports, Turkey is reinforcing its proxies in Syria under the name the National Army (Al-Jaysh Al-Watani), a 22,000 strong force compromising of elements considered unsavoury by Russia and the United States.